Um novo modelo?

O professor Robert Reich postou recentemente em seu blog um comentário interessante sobre as perspectivas de recuperação (leia a íntegra aqui) : "My prediction, then? Not a V, not a U. But an X (...) The X marks a brand new track -- a new economy. What will it look like? Nobody knows. All we know is the current economy can't "recover" because it can't go back to where it was before the crash. So instead of asking when the recovery will start, we should be asking when and how the new economy will begin."

Também falando sobre a crise, mas num contexto mais amplo, André Lara Resende (leia aqui) questionou que seja possível sustentar o modelo de crescimento que o mundo assistiu na última década: "Emerging market countries, traumatized by the recurring crises, came to understand that the adoption of the macroeconomic policy consensus was not enough to guarantee investor confidence. They were not allowed to benefit directly from the euphoric expansion of world credit. To avoid being repeatedly knocked down by a sudden lack of investor confidence, when going too far in their dependence on foreign capital, emerging market countries adopted a cautious attitude (...) Growth of emerging economies has relied on exports to cater to the consumption of the central economies, while domestic consumption was repressed (...) Emerging countries, that have only a conditional credibility, do not have room to turn domestic consumption into the engine of growth. Any attempt to mobilize internal consumption as an autonomous factor of growth increases the risk of running against the external restriction. The result could be a major and disruptive currency devaluation, after which there will be no room to conduct anti-cyclical policies (...)".

E conclui: "High rates of growth, based on the increase in consumption of the mature economies of first-world countries, cannot be sustained for a prolonged period. First-world countries have low or zero demographic growth, an inverted demographic pyramid and already very high standards of living. The maintenance of a high rate of consumption growth depends, both on the creation of new consumption needs and on the permanent expansion of credit to families with ever higher levels of debt. The rich central countries consume, financed by ever higher levels of debt, in order to satisfy ever more artificial needs, with products made in China, which controls its labor costs and buys raw materials from emerging countries. No need of a profound analysis to conclude that in the long run this model is unsustainable."

Tão ou mais importante que a discussão sobre o que será o novo modelo regulatório para o sistema financeiro está uma questão central: qual será o novo modelo de crescimento para o mundo nas próximas décadas?

Até então, a resposta parece completamente incerta e é hora de boas cabeças tentarem sugerir soluções...